Because he's not ideological enough.
Mitch Daniels, Indiana's Harley-riding governor, is being looked at as a possible for the GOP in 2012. He'll be going up against such luminous figures as Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin. I wouldn't be especially surprised if Mike Huckabee tries again, and I would be surprised if Glenn Beck didn't mull the idea of a run.
Mitt Romney suffers from John McCain's sense of entitlement. He just comes across as thinking it's his turn, and why don't they just give it to him, dammit! Newt Gingrich still has the problem of how he left his wife. And the extra-marital affair he had while he pursued Bill Clinton over his peccadilloes. He also has to climb the "influential has-been" mountain; that's not easy, as Rudy Giuliani discovered. Sarah has a fundamental credibility problem. She's got a fan base, but she's too extreme for most, and her unrelenting ability to be amazingly stupid doesn't bode well for her. She makes the news, and keeps some attention on herself, but until she learns to hide her eager ignorance, she'll always be the one who could have made it. Besides which, there are a lot of powerful women who would cringe, and work very hard, to make sure the Mrs Palin gets nowhere close to the Oval Office.
Mike Huckabee sounds reasonable, until you dig a bit deeper. It's why he lost the first time, and it's why he'll keep losing.
All of this leaves the field open to a reasonable, intelligent, moderate Republican. Which is where the whole thing becomes unstuck. The Tea Partiers don't like "moderate" Republicans. They want their candidates to sign pledges, to not veer from their script. That's not the way you get elected. That's the way you give your opponent a massive majority.
Mr Daniels could decide to do a McCain - and veer sharply to the right. He could start spouting meaningless rhetoric, and making himself popular with the far right. He could do that - but then he'd have to tack to the left if he won the primary. And as Sharon Angle is finding out, that's a good way of giving your opponent so much ammunition you might as well campaign against yourself. Because your opponent will make it look like you are, anyway.
Starting next year, we'll see a small and steady brain drain from the White House. Political consultants will begin the task of raising money for Mr Obama, and developing his election strategy. The experience of going up against one of the most potent political machines known (Hillary), will help. As will the experience of campaigning against John McCain. (He's not a contender. He is, frankly, too old.) The Sarah Palin Sound Machine won't be anywhere nearly as effective; in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the gloves came off early, and the political nukes were hand-delivered. All of this makes it very difficult for someone like Mitch Daniels; he doesn't have name recognition, and he's associated with George Bush in a less-than positive way.
All in all, the reports of Mr Obama's political demise are premature. The reports about the Republican candidates, on the other hand, are probably ancient history. Like their last candidate.
Carolyn Ann
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